Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 28 July 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning the highest reading from the full calendar day must be captured before resolution. July in Tokyo typically sees daily maxima between 32–35°C, though heat waves can push readings above 37°C.

The 0% crowd probability reflects uncertainty rather than a forecast that no temperature will be recorded. Tokyo's July climate is reliably warm; the Japan Meteorological Agency's 30-year averages show July mean daily maxima of 32.4°C, with extreme highs regularly exceeding 35°C in recent decades. The 2023 summer saw Tokyo peak at 37.5°C on multiple days. Historical precedent suggests any reasonable temperature band (say, 30–40°C) carries genuine probability mass, yet the current market shows no positions established.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal forecasts and any heat wave advisories issued in late July 2026. El Niño or La Niña conditions, if present, influence East Asian summer temperatures; the agency typically updates these outlooks monthly. Haneda's urban location and airport infrastructure can affect microclimatic readings compared to central Tokyo stations. The specific resolution source—Wunderground's historical data for RJTT (Haneda's ICAO code)—should be verified for data availability before settlement, as occasional gaps in automated station records have occurred.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.