Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s peak heat on 17 July 2026 hinges on a single day’s reading at Haneda Airport, with the crowd currently pricing any outcome above the lowest ranges at zero probability. Historical July highs in Tokyo typically sit between 30°C and 35°C, making a sub-25°C day exceptionally rare; the 0% YES probability implies traders expect the temperature to fall into a higher bracket, not the lowest tier. In past years, July 17 has recorded highs of 32.1°C in 2023 and 33.4°C in 2018, reinforcing that extreme coolness is an outlier rather than a baseline expectation [1].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s weekly weather outlook released early this week, which forecasts mid-July heatwaves across the Kanto region, and watch for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or rain bands that could suppress temperatures. A key dependency is the timing of the typhoon season: if a system approaches the Pacific coast before 17 July, it could bring cooler air and lower peak readings, but current models show no such threat. The Wunderground resolution source will capture the absolute daily maximum, so even brief spikes above 30°C will invalidate the lowest-range outcome, making short-term atmospheric volatility the primary catalyst for price movement.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.