Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market asks for the peak Celsius reading at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 16 July 2026, with settlement tied to Wunderground’s daily history for that station. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a “YES” outcome, yet Polymarket data shows traders favouring 33°C at 27% and 34°C at 25% as the leading ranges, indicating the market is pricing a specific band rather than a binary event [1].

Historically, mid-July in Tokyo typically sees highs between 31°C and 35°C, with Haneda Airport often recording slightly lower peaks than central stations due to coastal exposure. In recent years, 16 July has produced 33°C in 2023 and 34°C in 2022, making the 33–34°C cluster the most statistically grounded expectation. The 0% implied probability likely reflects a misalignment between the market’s binary framing and the actual multi-range resolution structure, not a genuine belief that no high temperature will occur.

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground daily update for RJTT (Haneda) on 16 July, released shortly after midnight UTC, which will confirm the day’s peak. No weather announcements or forecasts can alter the recorded value, but short-term model revisions from the Japan Meteorological Agency in the week before 16 July may shift crowd positioning. Watch for any station maintenance notices that could delay data publication, though Wunderground’s archive is historically reliable for this location.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.