Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo faces its peak summer heat on 13 July 2026, with the highest temperature at Haneda Airport determining the outcome of this weather prediction market. The crowd currently assigns 0% probability to the lowest temperature range, reflecting a near-universal expectation that temperatures will exceed 23°C. Historical data confirms July is Tokyo’s hottest month, with daily highs typically climbing from 80°F to 86°F (27°C to 30°C), rarely dipping below 71°F (22°C) [3]. The Polymarket frontrunner is 31°C at 37%, followed by 32°C at 24%, aligning with AccuWeather’s forecast of daily highs between 83°F and 90°F (28°C–32°C) for Haneda this month [1][2].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s 3-day forecast issued at 11:00 JST on 13 July, which lists the daily normal maximum as 29.8°C [7]. Any deviation above this baseline—driven by clear skies, low wind speeds averaging 7.2 mph, or rising surface water temperatures—could push readings toward the 31–32°C range [3]. Hourly forecasts from Yr indicate partly cloudy conditions with a maximum of 28°C, but this may shift if cloud cover breaks earlier than expected [10]. Recent history shows Haneda hit 85.2°F (29.6°C) on 8 July 2026, suggesting temperatures are already approaching seasonal peaks [4]. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC, real-time Wunderground updates for RJTT will be the sole resolution source, making intraday volatility critical [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.