Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s summer heat is already intensifying as mid-July approaches, with the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station expected to face peak temperatures that routinely exceed 35°C during this period. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the market outcome suggests traders believe the highest temperature will fall outside the lowest range, likely aligning with the frontrunner of 31°C, which holds a 51% chance according to recent Polymarket data[2]. This probability structure reflects the region’s consistent thermal behaviour rather than an outlier event.

Historical records show that mid-to-late July in Tokyo regularly hits 36–40°C, with humidity levels surpassing 95%, creating conditions akin to a concrete jungle[6]. Japan’s all-time highest temperature of 41.2°C was recorded in Hyogo Prefecture in late July 2025, underscoring the extreme potential for heat during this season[7]. Furthermore, Tokyo has experienced ten consecutive days above 35°C in recent years, reinforcing the expectation that July 10 will not be an anomaly but part of a sustained hot spell[9]. These patterns frame the 0% probability as a rational assessment that the temperature will exceed the lowest bracket.

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts from the Met Office, which currently predict a maximum daytime temperature of 32–35°C for Haneda[4], and watch for real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source. Any sudden shifts in cloud cover, wind patterns, or precipitation could alter the peak temperature, though such deviations are uncommon in July. Additionally, confirm whether the station’s sensors are functioning correctly, as technical glitches could skew readings. With settlement ending on 2026-07-10 at 12:00 UTC, timely data from Wunderground will be critical for final resolution[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.