Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s high temperature on 8 August is shaping up as a **hot-season, low-surprise** weather event rather than a coin-flip. Current live readings at the city level are already in the low 30s Celsius, with Weather Underground showing **92°F/77°F** at 9:39 JST and nearby forecasts pointing to a daytime peak around **33°C–34°C**; that sits comfortably inside the broad August norm for Tokyo, where long-run averages are around **31°C** for daytime highs.[4][2][11][1] AccuWeather’s August outlook for Tokyo also keeps daily highs mostly in the **83°F to 94°F** range, which means the market’s present 0% YES pricing looks more like a stale placeholder than a reflection of the actual weather profile.[1]

For traders, the main read-through is that the settlement source is **Weather Underground’s Daily Observations** for Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, not the site’s headline day-high box, so the number that matters is the highest observed value in that table by the cut-off rather than the forecast or summary display.[4] With the market closing at **12:00 UTC** and August heat typically building through late morning into the afternoon, the critical catalyst is whether observations climb into the mid-30s Celsius before the window ends; official Japanese climate tables already show Tokyo-area highs above **36°C** earlier in the month, underlining that a late spike is plausible even if the morning starts in the low 30s.[12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.