Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda’s highest temperature on 5 August will be set by the afternoon peak, and the market is currently pricing **0%** for a specific YES outcome despite the day sitting squarely in the city’s hottest stretch. Forecasts for Tokyo point to very warm conditions, with August daily highs broadly in the low 30s Celsius and AccuWeather showing 5 August around **30°C** and nearby days in the **31–33°C** range, which is materially below the upper tail needed for an extreme reading but still comfortably warm enough for a mid-30s spike if sunshine persists.[1][3][16]

Recent comparable readings suggest the market should be read as a bet on whether Haneda can outperform the broader Tokyo forecast rather than simply match it. Japan Meteorological Agency station data for Tokyo and the Tokyo-area maxima table show late-summer highs often clustering in the mid-to-high 30s at inland sites, while coastal Haneda has tended to run several degrees cooler than the city’s hottest locations, making a very high daily maximum less common there than in central or inland wards.[10][15] That gap matters because the settlement source is Haneda specifically, not Tokyo as a whole.[6]

The main catalysts are the updated day-of forecasts, cloud cover through late morning, and any convective showers or sea-breeze influence that cap the afternoon top end. Timeanddate’s hourly outlook already has Tokyo around **88°F/31°C** by late morning and early afternoon, while Japanese and international forecast pages show some uncertainty around shower risk and wind direction for the day, both of which can trim the realised maximum if they arrive early enough.[2][5] Traders should watch whether the forecast nudges towards a clear, dry, sunny afternoon or stays pinned in the low 30s, because that is the difference between a routine August reading and one that could threaten the higher bands on the market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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