Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s high on 4 August will be judged at Haneda, and the crowd is currently pricing a 0% chance of a **YES** outcome. That is notable because mid-summer Tokyo routinely produces afternoon highs well into the 30s Celsius: AccuWeather’s August outlook points to daily highs of about 82° to 90°F, while long-run Japan guidance puts Tokyo’s August maximum around 31°C, with humidity making the heat feel more intense.[1][14][16]

For context, the Japanese Meteorological Agency’s August 2026 daily table already shows Tokyo-area readings above 35°C on 1–2 August at its main Tokyo station, and Haneda itself reached 35.6°C and 33.0°C on those dates.[7] That is a useful comparison because it shows the market is not dealing with an outlier cold spell; rather, the question is whether Haneda can push to the top of its daily range later in the day, especially if sunshine dominates and wind stays light.[7][10]

The main catalysts are the hourly temperature path through the afternoon, any cloud or rain development, and whether the forecast high shifts as the day progresses. Time and Date’s hourly Tokyo page had 88°F around the current update, with temperatures falling back into the 70s overnight, while Japanese forecast feeds show mostly cloudy conditions and a daytime range around 22° to 28°C for Tokyo on 4 August, which would make an extreme high less likely if it verifies.[2][6] The market settles from Wunderground’s Haneda history page, so late-day revisions in official or local forecast sources matter most if they change the expected peak before the 12:00 UTC cut-off.[6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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