Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 21 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about which bracket will resolve or insufficient trading activity to establish consensus pricing.

August in Tokyo typically sees peak summer heat, with historical daily highs averaging 32–34°C during mid-to-late August. The Japan Meteorological Agency's records from recent years show that 21 August has produced temperatures ranging from 29°C to 36°C depending on atmospheric conditions and typhoon proximity. The 0% crowd probability across all ranges is unusual for a weather market with a defined settlement date and established measurement protocol; this likely reflects thin liquidity rather than genuine forecasting consensus. Comparable August dates at Haneda have frequently exceeded 33°C, making mid-to-high 30s ranges historically plausible.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal forecasts released in July 2026, which typically indicate whether above or below-average temperatures are expected for late summer. Pacific typhoon activity in early-to-mid August will be the primary catalyst affecting conditions on the 21st; tropical systems can suppress temperatures significantly or, conversely, create heat domes if they remain distant. Real-time weather model guidance from late August will narrow the range substantially, though Haneda's urban location and airport infrastructure can create localised heat effects that differ from broader Tokyo readings.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.