Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 20 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the full 24-hour temperature record for the day must be available before resolution occurs. This timing constraint is critical: if peak heat occurs late in the afternoon or evening, traders will have visibility on the actual reading before the market settles.

August in Tokyo typically produces daily highs between 32–35°C, though extreme heat events pushing toward 37–39°C occur roughly once per decade during particularly intense summer patterns. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific range brackets available or are treating this as a genuine weather forecast challenge rather than a historical extrapolation. Comparable August days at Haneda over the past five years have ranged from 31°C to 36°C, with 2023 recording 35°C on 20 August specifically—a useful baseline for assessing whether 2026 tracking is likely to be warmer or cooler than recent precedent.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10–14 day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature ranges. Pacific typhoon activity and upper-atmosphere pressure patterns in mid-August will be the primary drivers of whether heat domes persist or break down. Any official heat warnings issued by Tokyo authorities in the days preceding 20 August would signal elevated probabilities for above-average temperatures, though Haneda's coastal location moderates extremes compared to inland urban areas.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.