Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature on 2 August will be set by the reading at Haneda Airport, and the market is currently pricing in a **0%** chance of the top bracket being hit. That sits against a climate backdrop where early August in Tokyo is normally very hot: average August highs are around **30–31°C**, with typical daily highs near **31°C** and records reaching the high **30s** in past years[1][2][6].

Recent comparable August data suggest the upper end is not unusual, even if an exact match to the winning range is still weather-dependent. Historical summaries for Tokyo show August record highs around **37.3–39°C**, while recent daily averages around 2 August have tended to sit close to the low-to-mid **30s** rather than the extreme peak, which is why the market’s implied certainty can move quickly if forecast highs firm up[2][3][7]. The key point for traders is that the settlement uses the day’s highest temperature at Haneda, so a brief afternoon spike matters more than the average for the date[12].

The main catalysts are the short-range forecast updates, cloud cover and rain timing, and any heat advisories or maritime air changes affecting the Tokyo bay area. AccuWeather’s August 2026 outlook shows daily highs generally between **82°F and 90°F** with overnight lows of **70°F to 77°F**, which points to a warm but not automatically extreme profile unless later updates push the top end higher[9]. Traders should watch for any late-morning forecast revision before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes, because small shifts in the expected afternoon maximum can be decisive[9][12].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.