Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 17 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, which serves as the authoritative resolution source should any discrepancy arise with the Day High & Low summary figures. The market currently reflects 0% probability, suggesting traders expect temperatures to fall below the lowest available range threshold on that specific date.

August in Tokyo typically records daily highs between 32–35°C, with extreme heat events pushing readings toward 37–38°C. Historical data from past mid-August periods shows Haneda Airport frequently registers temperatures in the 33–35°C band, though the 2010 heatwave pushed readings to 39.9°C. The current zero-probability assessment indicates the market has set range thresholds that traders view as implausibly high for a typical August day, or the lowest bracket may be positioned above expected conditions. Comparable August 17th readings from prior years would clarify whether the probability distribution reflects seasonal norms or unusual expectations.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early August 2026, which will provide 10–14 day outlooks for Tokyo's weather patterns. Pacific typhoon activity during mid-August could either suppress temperatures through cloud cover and rainfall or intensify heat through pre-storm humidity. Haneda Airport's recording methodology and any potential station maintenance during the settlement window should also be verified, as these could affect measurement consistency relative to historical baselines.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.