Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 15 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement based on that specific data source rather than summary figures. August in Tokyo typically sees peak summer heat, with historical highs in mid-August ranging from 34°C to 37°C depending on atmospheric conditions and whether a heat dome or monsoon system influences the region.

The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the exact temperature range options available or are waiting for clarification on which specific threshold defines the market's YES resolution. August 2026 falls within Japan's rainy season transition period, when tropical systems occasionally suppress temperatures, though sustained heat waves remain common. The settlement window closes at midday on the 15th, meaning morning and early afternoon readings will determine the outcome; Haneda's coastal location near Tokyo Bay can moderate temperatures slightly compared to central urban areas.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts from mid-July onwards, particularly tracking whether El Niño or La Niña conditions persist into northern hemisphere summer, as these influence Pacific jet stream positioning and heat distribution across East Asia. Japanese meteorological agency updates typically become more precise 10–14 days before the target date. Historical August data from Haneda shows considerable year-to-year variation; 2023 saw multiple days exceeding 36°C, whilst cooler Augusts have peaked around 33–34°C, making the specific temperature bands offered in this market critical to assessing true probability.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.