Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 14 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement based on the specific hourly readings rather than summary high-low figures. August in Tokyo typically sees peak temperatures between 32–35°C, though extreme heat events occasionally push readings above 37°C.

Historical August data from Tokyo Haneda shows that temperatures exceeding 38°C occur roughly once every five to seven years during the month, whilst readings below 30°C are exceptionally rare. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a cooler-than-normal August day or uncertainty about the exact resolution methodology. August 2023 saw Tokyo record 35.1°C on the 14th; August 2022 peaked at 33.7°C on that date. These mid-range outcomes represent the statistical centre of expectation for any given 14 August.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide reliable 10-day outlooks. Pacific typhoon activity and upper-atmosphere pressure patterns in mid-August will be critical; a passing low-pressure system could suppress temperatures significantly, whilst high-pressure ridges intensify heat. El Niño or La Niña conditions active during summer 2026 will influence seasonal temperature trends. The specific resolution source—Haneda Airport's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures—means traders must verify WunderGround's exact data structure before settlement, as discrepancies between hourly and daily summaries have historically affected weather market outcomes.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.