Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's weather in mid-August typically sits within a narrow band. Historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows that 12 August has recorded highs ranging from 32–36°C over the past two decades, with an average around 34°C. The city's summer peak occurs in late July and early August, after which the intensity of heat occasionally moderates slightly as the monsoon season transitions. Haneda Airport, the resolution point for this market, sits in a coastal location that can experience marginally cooler readings than central Tokyo due to maritime influence, though this effect is modest during peak summer.

The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that the temperature will fall below the lowest threshold offered in the market's range options. This positioning warrants scrutiny against climatological norms. August 2024 saw Tokyo record highs of 35–37°C during comparable dates, whilst 2023 produced similar patterns. Unless the market's lowest range begins above 36°C—an unusually high floor—the probability appears misaligned with seasonal precedent.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal forecasts released in July 2026, which typically provide guidance on whether the coming month will trend warmer or cooler than the 30-year average. El Niño or La Niña conditions, if present, could shift August temperatures by 1–2°C. Additionally, any significant typhoon activity in early August could introduce cloud cover and precipitation that would suppress peak temperatures on the 12th, though such systems are difficult to predict more than a fortnight in advance.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.