Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 11 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, capturing the peak temperature reached during the morning and early afternoon hours in Japan Standard Time.

August in Tokyo typically sees daily highs between 32–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. Historical data from recent years shows that extreme heat events—temperatures exceeding 37°C—occur roughly once every three to five years in mid-August, though they remain statistically uncommon for any single specified date. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a scenario where the temperature falls below the lowest threshold offered, or that the market's range structure makes all listed options unlikely given typical August conditions.

The key variable affecting 11 August 2026 is whether a Pacific high-pressure system or tropical air mass will dominate Tokyo's weather pattern that week. Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in late July 2026 will provide the first concrete indication of atmospheric setup; traders should monitor whether advisories mention heat wave conditions or unusual upper-air patterns. Typhoon activity in early August could also suppress temperatures by introducing cloud cover and moisture, though such systems typically clear before mid-month. Real-time temperature observations from Haneda will become actionable only in the final 48 hours before settlement.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.