Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda Airport’s highest temperature on 1 August is the key number for this market, and the crowd’s 0% YES price points to an expectation that the day will finish well below the upper bands. That is not a normal reading for Tokyo in early August: the city’s monthly climatology typically sits around the low 30s Celsius, with August described as the hottest month of the year and average highs around 31–33°C, while historical Tokyo records show far higher one-day extremes in summer[2][3][6][13].

For framing, recent August weather data show Tokyo still capable of producing a late-day spike into the mid-to-high 30s, with one 2025 daily high reaching 97°F/36.1°C and historical Tokyo records peaking at 37.3°C in August 1994[4][2]. At the same time, the 2026 monthly JMA table already shows a relatively subdued summer so far, with July averaging 26.2°C and June 25.5°C at Tokyo, which is a useful reminder that early-season conditions do not guarantee an extreme finish later in the month[11]. The market therefore turns less on long-run averages than on whether the airport station sees a brief heat surge on the day itself.

Traders should watch the Japan Meteorological Agency’s day-of forecasts, any updated heat alerts, and the timing of the afternoon peak, because the settlement source is the single highest reading for Tokyo Haneda Airport Station before the 12:00 UTC window closes[9][11]. Nearby marine air, cloud cover, and rain can cap the maximum, while a dry southerly flow and strong sunshine can push the final print upwards. Wunderground’s daily history page for RJTT is the relevant resolution source, so revisions to the reported maximum before the next day’s first datapoint remain material[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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FAQ

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