Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Taipei on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei Songshan Airport is currently experiencing overcast conditions with temperatures around 88°F (32°C) and high humidity, as July marks the hottest month of the year for the region with an average high of 92°F [2][3]. The 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific temperature range appears inconsistent with historical data, given that the warmest recorded low temperature on July 13 at this station was 32.0°C in 2014, indicating that extreme heat is a regular feature of mid-summer in Taipei [1].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from the Central Weather Administration and Wunderground history pages, as the settlement relies on the highest temperature recorded for all times on 13 July 2026 at RCSS [5]. With the settlement window closing at 12:00:00Z on the same day, the key catalyst is the afternoon peak temperature, which typically occurs between 14:00 and 16:00 local time in July [2]. Any sudden shift in cloud cover or wind patterns observed in the hourly forecast, such as the current 15 mph winds and 78% humidity, could significantly alter the final reading [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Taipei on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.