Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Singapore on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Singapore’s afternoon high is usually anchored in the low 30s Celsius, with July climatology clustered around 31°C by day and about 27°C at night, so the market’s current pricing around 30–31°C matches the city-state’s normal monsoon-season profile rather than an outlier heat event.[3][5] Longer-run climate summaries also suggest that readings above the mid-30s are possible but uncommon, with daytime temperatures in Singapore typically capping around 34°C in July.[4]

The 0% yes price is best read as a statement about the event’s wording, not the weather itself: the market settles on the *highest* temperature recorded at Singapore Changi Airport Station during the day, so a trader is really wagering on the day’s peak, not the average.[2] July in Singapore still sits in the southwest monsoon period, when clouds and rainfall remain frequent enough to suppress extremes even though warm, humid afternoons are the norm.[5]

What moves this market is the intraday temperature trace at Changi, plus any late-day bursts of sun or rain that shift the daily maximum by a degree or two. Traders should watch the morning and early-afternoon forecast cycle, since Singapore’s heaviest rainfall often arrives around early afternoon and can blunt the day’s peak, while clearer spells can quickly push the high back into the 31–32°C band.[4] Market prices can also react to updated local weather forecasts and observations from the airport station as the settlement window approaches.[2][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Singapore on July 27?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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