Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the Singapore Changi Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a figure that climatological norms and the ongoing Southwest Monsoon strongly suggest will sit between 31°C and 32°C. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a “YES” outcome appears to misalign with established weather patterns, as historical data indicates July highs in Singapore typically reach 31°C, with averages hovering around 27°C and heat indices climbing to 41.5°C[2].

Historical records frame this probability sharply: Singapore posted its highest temperature in 40 years at 37.0°C in a recent anomaly, yet such extremes are outliers against the consistent backdrop of 31°C–32°C highs during July[8]. Polymarket data heavily favours 32°C (44.5%) or 31°C (31.5%), reflecting climatological norms, while the current frontrunner outcome is 32°C at 99% probability[1]. This suggests the 0% market stance is likely a mispricing rather than a reflection of genuine meteorological risk.

Traders should monitor daily Wunderground updates for the Changi Airport Station, particularly any sudden shifts in monsoon intensity or thunderstorm activity that could depress temperatures below the 31°C threshold[2]. BBC Weather observations for 1 July 2026 already show hazy conditions with temperatures at 28°C and rising to 30°C, indicating a stable trend toward the expected range[3]. No major weather disruptions have been announced, but sudden showers remain a possibility given July’s average rainfall of 150 mm over three weeks[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.