Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen is experiencing overcast conditions with an ambient temperature of 84°F (approximately 29°C) and a RealFeel of 95°F due to 83% humidity, setting a humid baseline for the day’s peak heat reading. The prediction market currently assigns a 0% probability to the YES outcome, implying the crowd expects the highest temperature to fall outside the specific range being traded, despite the immediate warmth.

Historical July data for Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport typically sees peaks between 31°C and 34°C, with the current Polymarket frontrunner at 31°C holding a 98% probability, suggesting traders view lower temperatures as the dominant outcome for this specific date [2]. The 0% crowd-implied probability on the YES side likely reflects a mismatch between the traded range and this established 31°C consensus, as recent comparable days in mid-July have rarely exceeded 32°C under similar overcast, high-humidity conditions.

Traders should monitor the hourly Wunderground updates for the Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport Station, as the settlement relies exclusively on the highest recorded temperature for all times on 21 July 2026 [2]. Any sudden shift in cloud cover or wind patterns could push the peak above 31°C, altering the 98% probability assigned to that outcome, though the current overcast sky and 91% cloud cover act as a natural cap on solar heating [1]. The market will resolve once the settlement window closes at 2026-07-21T12:00:00Z, locking in the final temperature reading from the official source.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.