Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s airport temperature on 3 August is the real-world trigger here, with settlement tied to the day’s highest reading at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station on Wunderground. The market is priced as if a sub-30°C result is still the base case, with 29°C the clear front-runner at 31% and 28°C next at 24%, while 30°C also has meaningful support at 22%.[1]

That distribution fits Shenzhen’s August climate profile, which is typically hot, humid and rain-prone, with average highs around 32°C and lows in the mid-20s Celsius across multiple climate sources.[6][12][15] It also sits comfortably within the recent resolution pattern from this same market family: on 1 August, the market settled at 31°C, showing that the airport can still post a warmer daily maximum even when traders are clustered around the high-20s and low-30s brackets.[17]

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s forecast updates, the timing of any convection or afternoon rain, and whether temperatures peak before cloud cover or thunderstorms build inland. Wunderground’s own resolution rule matters as much as the forecast: revisions are accepted until the first datapoint for the following date is published, so late adjustments to the daily maximum can still change the outcome window.[1] A material move in local forecast models towards a hotter or wetter afternoon is the clearest near-term driver of price action.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.