Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen's August climate will determine whether the highest temperature recorded at Bao'an International Airport on 21 August 2026 falls into the specified range. The city sits in southern Guangdong province with subtropical conditions; August typically ranks among the hottest months, with daily highs frequently exceeding 32°C and occasionally reaching into the mid-to-high 30s Celsius during heat waves.

Historical August data from Bao'an station shows consistent patterns. Over the past decade, peak temperatures on individual August days have ranged from 33°C to 37°C, with extremes occasionally touching 38°C during particularly intense heat episodes. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the highest temperature to fall outside whatever range this market specifies—either substantially lower or higher than the settlement parameters. Comparable August 21 observations from prior years provide the most direct reference point, though inter-annual variability remains significant depending on monsoon patterns and high-pressure systems positioning over the region.

Traders should monitor tropical weather systems and typhoon activity in late July and early August 2026, as these can substantially alter temperature trajectories heading into late August. The East Asian summer monsoon's intensity and timing will influence cloud cover and precipitation patterns. Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at Bao'an—the explicit resolution source—records readings at specific intervals; understanding the station's measurement protocols and any maintenance schedules becomes relevant for precise settlement interpretation.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.