Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen's August climate will determine whether the highest temperature recorded at Bao'an International Airport on 12 August 2026 falls into the specified range. The city sits in a subtropical zone where summer heat peaks during this period, with daily maximums typically ranging between 32–35°C, though extremes have occasionally pushed higher.

Historical August data from Bao'an station shows that temperatures exceeding 36°C occur in roughly one-third of years during mid-August, whilst readings above 38°C remain comparatively rare. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a specific temperature threshold below historical norms or uncertainty about the exact resolution range boundaries. Comparable August periods from 2015–2024 provide the most relevant baseline: most years recorded highs between 33–36°C, with outlier years reaching 37–38°C. The distinction between Weather Underground's Daily Observations table and the Day High & Low summary matters operationally; historical discrepancies between these sources have occasionally shifted outcomes by 0.5–1°C.

Traders should monitor tropical weather patterns developing across the South China Sea in late July and early August 2026, as typhoon activity or monsoon shifts can suppress temperatures significantly. Bao'an's coastal location means sea-surface temperatures and wind patterns from the Pearl River Delta influence daily highs more than inland stations. Any tropical system tracking towards Guangdong province in the week preceding 12 August would be the primary catalyst affecting the outcome, alongside standard seasonal atmospheric pressure systems typical for that fortnight.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.