Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s hottest reading at Bao’an Airport on 1 August will hinge on whether the city delivers a standard late-summer peak or a more extreme heat spike. Seasonal norms point to very warm conditions: August averages are around 32°C by day, with typical highs near 31-32°C and a humid, rain-prone pattern that can either cap maxima or, on clearer days, allow temperatures to run higher than average.[2][8][13]

For context, the market’s current 0% implied probability on a specific temperature band is best read against the fact that Shenzhen has produced outsized August highs before. One comparative guide cites a record August temperature of 103°F (about 39.4°C) and a daily range on 1 August 2025 of 83°F to 90°F, showing that the city can still reach the low-30s Celsius even outside exceptional events.[6] That history matters because the airport station’s daily maximum is usually driven by the interaction between humidity, cloud cover and convective rain, not by a smooth seasonal average.[14][18]

The main catalysts are the day’s local weather setup and any typhoon or heavy-rain influence affecting the Pearl River Delta, since August sits inside Shenzhen’s wettest stretch.[8][18] Traders should watch the morning cloud/rain outlook, whether thunderstorms develop before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, and any official forecast updates from the airport or nearby city forecasts, because a wet start can suppress the day’s high while a break in cloud later can still lift it sharply.[3][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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