Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is entering its peak humid rainy season, where June highs typically climb between 30°C and 35°C on sunny days, while cloudy or rainy conditions often cap temperatures near 25°C to 30°C[4]. The settlement window for this prediction market closes at noon on 30 June 2026, capturing the single highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, with data sourced from Wunderground[3]. Current crowd-implied probability suggests a 32% chance that the temperature will fall within a specific lower range, though the frontrunner on the broader market is 26°C at 48%, indicating traders expect a warmer outcome than the lower-range scenario implies[3].

Historical climatology for late June shows the warmest day of the month often reaches 29.7°C to 30.0°C, with early June days dropping significantly lower to 18.7°C, creating a volatile range that traders must weigh carefully[6]. The average high for June sits at 30°C (82°F), with daily highs increasing by roughly 7°F from early to late month, rarely falling below 21°C or exceeding 33°C[2]. This upward trend in temperature supports the market’s lean toward higher values, yet the 32% probability for the lower range reflects uncertainty about potential rain or cloud cover that could suppress the peak temperature on the final day.

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates for Shanghai Pudong International Airport, particularly wind speed and solar energy levels, as these directly influence peak temperatures[2]. Recent forecasts indicate daily highs ranging from 30°C to 35°C, with overnight lows between 23°C and 25°C, but deviations can occur due to urban heat-island effects and wind variations[7]. No major weather announcements are expected before settlement, but sudden shifts in cloud cover or rainfall could alter the outcome, making live Wunderground data the critical dependency for resolving this market accurately[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.