Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 9 July 2026, the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station will record its highest daytime temperature, a critical metric for weather prediction markets given the region’s intense summer heat. Historical data shows July highs at this station typically range from 30°C to 38°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 40°C during humid, cloud-sparse conditions[3]. The current 0% probability assigned to any outcome above 25°C contradicts these established patterns, suggesting either a mispricing or an unverified forecast of unusually cool weather.

Recent observations from 7–9 July indicate a cooling trend: temperatures fell from 37°C on 7 July to 33°C on 9 July, accompanied by broken cloud cover[6]. This dip may reflect a temporary shift in monsoon activity or increased precipitation, which often suppresses peak temperatures. Traders should monitor Wunderground’s hourly updates for 9 July, particularly cloud density and wind speed, as these directly influence maximum heat retention[1]. No official weather advisories have been issued yet, but the National Weather Service’s METAR data for ZSPD will provide real-time validation of atmospheric conditions[5].

The discrepancy between historical norms and current market pricing warrants scrutiny. While early July often sees temperatures exceeding 35°C, the recent 4°C drop suggests a possible anomaly. If cloud cover persists and humidity rises, the 0% probability may be justified; however, if skies clear and solar radiation increases, the market could face significant correction. Watch for any sudden changes in wind speed or precipitation forecasts, as these are key catalysts for temperature shifts in Shanghai’s coastal climate[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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