Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the peak temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 5 July 2026, a date that historically sits within the city’s hottest month. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific range suggests the market expects an extreme outlier or a resolution failure, yet historical data shows July highs at this station typically range between 84°F and 88°F (29°C–31°C), rarely dipping below 75°F or exceeding 95°F[1][3]. In comparable years, the highest daily average high reaches 88°F, with solar energy and growing degree days rising rapidly through the month, indicating consistent thermal pressure rather than erratic volatility[1].

Traders should monitor immediate weather announcements, particularly the forecast for today’s cloudy, humid conditions with a predicted afternoon thunderstorm that could suppress peak temperatures to 83°F[2]. The National Weather Service notes clusters of severe thunderstorms are expected, which may introduce significant cooling effects and alter the resolution source from Wunderground if data gaps occur[4]. A key dependency is the timing of storm onset; if the t-storm arrives before midday, the recorded high could fall below typical July averages, while a delayed storm might allow temperatures to climb toward 93°F by Monday[2]. Recent climate models confirm hourly historical data is available since 1940, allowing precise back-testing of storm-temperature correlations for this station[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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