Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is currently experiencing overcast conditions with a temperature of 82°F (28°C) and very warm RealFeel readings of 89°F due to 89% humidity, setting the immediate baseline for the day’s thermal trajectory. The settlement window for this weather market closes at 12:00 UTC on 21 July 2026, meaning the final resolution depends entirely on the peak temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station before that deadline.

Historical data for mid-July in Shanghai typically sees maximum temperatures ranging between 33°C and 38°C, with recent forecasts indicating a maximum of 38°C for today at Pudong Airport [2]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome other than the frontrunner appears inconsistent with these established seasonal norms, as the market currently assigns a 100% probability to the 33°C range [1]. This divergence suggests the crowd may be underweighting the likelihood of higher heatwaves common in the region during this period, where temperatures frequently breach the 35°C threshold.

Traders should monitor the afternoon weather pattern, which is expected to shift from mostly cloudy to a mixture of sunshine and clouds with a possibility of local thunderstorms [3]. A 60% probability of precipitation presents a key dependency; if rain arrives before noon, it could suppress the peak temperature significantly below the 33°C frontrunner, whereas clear skies with strong sunshine would likely push the reading toward the 38°C upper limit forecasted by Meteoblue [2]. The resolution source remains Wunderground’s daily history for the Pudong station, so real-time updates on cloud cover and storm timing are critical for assessing the final outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.