Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is entering its peak summer heatwave on 13 July 2026, with the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station expected to record its daily maximum temperature during the afternoon. Current forecasts indicate highs between 32°C and 33°C for the day, with overnight lows hovering around 27°C to 28°C[4][10]. Historical data for mid-July shows average highs near 30.7°C, though recent years have seen peaks reach 38°C under intense solar radiation[6][9].

The crowd-implied 0% probability for a “YES” outcome suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range being bet on, likely because 32–33°C is below the threshold for extreme heat events that typically trigger such bets. In comparable cases, Shanghai’s July highs frequently exceed 35°C, with 2025 reaching 38°C, making a sub-35°C reading on 13 July relatively unusual but not impossible[6]. Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground and local meteorological bulletins, as sudden cloud cover or rain could suppress temperatures below the expected range[3].

Key catalysts include the timing of the daily peak, which usually occurs around 14:00–15:00 local time, and any unexpected weather systems such as the approaching showers noted in current forecasts[4]. A shift in wind direction or increased precipitation could lower the maximum temperature, altering the settlement outcome. Traders must watch for official updates from the National Weather Service and Wunderground’s hourly data for ZSPD, as these will determine the final resolution[8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.