Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s highest temperature on 1 July 2026 will be recorded at the Pudong International Airport Station, with resolution based on Wunderground data for that day. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome above a specific threshold appears inconsistent with historical patterns, as July is typically Shanghai’s hottest month, averaging highs near 87°F (30.6°C) at Pudong[5]. Recent forecasts for 1 July show a high of 26°C (79°F) at Hongqiao, a nearby station, suggesting conditions may be slightly cooler than the long-term average but still well within the 25–28°C range[3]. Historical summer data confirms that Pudong regularly exceeds 30°C, reaching 35°C in peak sunny spells, making a 0% probability for moderate ranges statistically questionable[7].

Traders should monitor updates from the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, which recently reported a summer high of 40.4°C in parts of Pudong, indicating potential volatility in temperature forecasts[9]. Key catalysts include daily weather bulletins from AccuWeather for Pudong in July 2026, which project daily highs between 80°F and 93°F (26.7°C–33.9°C), reinforcing the likelihood of temperatures in the 26–28°C band[8]. Additionally, real-time crowd probabilities on Polymarket currently favour 26°C at 77%, with 27°C as the next closest outcome at 17%, suggesting market consensus aligns with moderate summer highs rather than extremes[1]. No suspensions or injuries apply here, but forecast dependencies on humidity and wind patterns—currently at 84% humidity and 6 mph east-southeast winds—could shift the line if conditions change abruptly[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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