Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s high on 9 August will be judged from the Pudong International Airport station reading in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, so the market is effectively a question about the day’s *observed* peak rather than the headline forecast. Current pricing at 0% YES implies the crowd is assigning almost no chance to the relevant temperature landing in the market’s target range, even though Shanghai is in its hottest, most humid part of the year and nearby forecasts still point to temperatures in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius before any rain effects are applied.[1][15][16]

The main reference point is what comparable August days in Shanghai usually produce: typical daytime maxima cluster around the low 30s Celsius, with long-run averages near 31–32°C and frequent rain or heavy cloud during the month.[9][15][16] That matters because forecast highs for 9 August are already being pulled around by different models and outlets, ranging from about 28°C to 36°C, which is wide enough to shift the likely settlement band materially if showers arrive early or intensify during the warmest part of the day.[2][3][4][13] In other words, the market is not pricing a freak heat event; it is pricing how much peak warmth survives under wet, windy, cloudier conditions.

What traders should watch is the evolution of the final 24-hour forecast and the actual timing of rainfall around Shanghai Pudong Airport, because rain, wind and overcast skies are the obvious downward catalysts for the observed maximum.[2][3][4][11][13] AccuWeather and Time and Date both flag a wet, windy Sunday with high precipitation probabilities, while Weather Underground’s own reporting will decide the outcome if the station logs a brief warm spike before rain cools the day.[3][4][14] The relevant dependency is simple: if the airport stays dry through late morning or early afternoon, the observed high can still come in materially above the headline “feels like” figures; if rain arrives early, the settlement range should compress lower.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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FAQ

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