Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s peak temperature for 3 August is the figure that will settle this market, with the exchange tied to the highest reading recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station on that day. Early- month Shanghai climate norms point to a hot, humid baseline rather than a cool outlier: AccuWeather’s August 2026 outlook has daily highs mostly in the low 30s Celsius, while other August guides cluster around average highs near 31-32°C and frequent rain. [1][5][12]

For context, comparable early-August forecasts are already sitting in the mid-30s Celsius, which matters because the market is not about the monthly average but the single-day maximum. Hong Kong’s government forecast service showed Shanghai at 29-37°C with cloud on 2 August, while other day-specific forecast pages put 3 August around 34.5-35°C with showers or thunder, implying a meaningful tail risk of an upper-30s print if sunshine breaks through before convection builds. [6][4][2]

The main catalysts are timing and the airport station’s actual midday-to-afternoon evolution rather than generic city weather. Traders should watch for updates from the same-day forecast cycle, since early-morning cloud cover, thunderstorm coverage, or rain bands can suppress the eventual high even in a very warm airmass; conversely, a brief clear spell can lift the maximum quickly. Airport-specific readings can also differ from downtown Shanghai, so the Pudong station observation is the one that matters for settlement. [6][17][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.