Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's weather in mid-August typically sits within a narrow band. Historical data from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station shows that 17 August temperatures have ranged between 32–36°C over the past decade, with the absolute maximum recorded at 37.2°C in 2013. The city's monsoon season peaks in July and early August, creating humid conditions that occasionally push daily highs above 35°C, though readings below 32°C on this date are exceptionally rare. August 2025 saw a high of 34.1°C on the corresponding date, suggesting the current 0% crowd probability may reflect either an extremely narrow resolution band or a misalignment with typical seasonal patterns.

The settlement mechanism hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when automated systems round or average readings differently. Traders should monitor Shanghai's weather forecasts from late July onwards, as tropical cyclone activity or unusual pressure systems in early August can shift atmospheric conditions into mid-month. The China Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts by early August; any alerts regarding heat waves or unusual temperature patterns would be material to the resolution outcome. The 0% probability suggests the market may be pricing an implausibly narrow temperature band, making this worth cross-referencing against comparable August dates and typical sensor variance at Pudong station.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.