Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai Pudong International Airport is the reference point here, and the market pays out on the **single highest temperature** recorded in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table on 10 August, not the broader day-high summary. Early read-throughs point to a warm-to-hot baseline rather than an extreme breakout: Shanghai’s August climate typically sits around the low 30s °C by day, and recent August data for the airport has already produced highs in the low-to-mid 30s on comparable dates.[16][15]

That makes the current **0% YES** look anchored to a threshold that is likely well above normal late-summer conditions unless a sharp heat surge develops. Comparable Shanghai August histories show frequent highs around 32°C to 35°C, with occasional spikes above that, but not often enough to treat the top range as routine.[16][5][2] Weather Underground’s own Shanghai history page shows a record high of 103°F and a recent observed high of 82°F in the snapshot available, underscoring how dependent this market is on the exact day’s temperature path rather than a generic seasonal average.[7]

The main catalyst is the intraday reading sequence at Pudong Airport: traders should watch for the first noon-to-afternoon peak, any late-afternoon rebound, and whether thunderstorms or heavy rain cap the maximum before it can reach the upper range. Timeanddate’s extended forecast flags overcast conditions, flash-flood risk, and a high chance of rain for Shanghai, which would typically limit upside in the daily maximum if it verifies at the airport station.[14] In practice, the line will move on any updated station observations, forecast revisions, or a hotter-than-expected mesoscale break in cloud cover and precipitation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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