Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The temperature at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 1 August will be set by the day’s highest reading, so the key question is whether the airport reaches a standard hot-season peak or something closer to a heatwave spike. Shanghai’s August climate is normally hot and humid, with typical highs around 31–33°C, and several guides note that early August often sits near the top of the monthly range rather than at the very start of a cooling trend.[1][5][10]

That historical backdrop makes the market’s current 0% YES pricing look detached from the city’s seasonal pattern, because August in Shanghai routinely produces high temperatures in the low 30s and can move well beyond that in strong heat events.[1][2][11] Recent reference points also show how quickly the city can run hot: Shanghai has posted August highs near 39–40°C in recent years, and its all-time city record is around 41°C, although airport readings are often a little lower than inner-city extremes.[6][8][9][16]

For traders, the main catalysts are the morning-to-afternoon forecast updates, any heat alerts issued for Shanghai, and whether the broader Yangtze Delta remains under a stagnant high-pressure pattern rather than disrupted by rain or a passing tropical system.[6][11][17] The settlement source is the Wunderground daily history page for Shanghai Pudong International Airport, so the market will ultimately depend on that station’s peak reading rather than the citywide forecast headline.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.