Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on June 27?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul is currently experiencing a sharp heat spike, with today’s forecasted high reaching 33°C under mostly cloudy skies, marking the hottest June day the city has recorded since 1958[8]. This real-world surge directly contradicts the crowd-implied 0% probability for temperatures hitting 27°C, suggesting a significant mispricing in the market as the monsoon season approaches and humidity builds rapidly[3].

Historical data shows June highs in Seoul typically climb from 25°C to 27°C, rarely exceeding 31°C, yet the recent record of 35.6°C shatters these norms and frames the current 0% probability as dangerously low[1][2]. Traders must watch for official updates from Wunderground regarding the Incheon Intl Airport Station’s peak reading, as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC today and any delay in data release could invalidate the trade[5]. The Asia News Network confirms this is the highest June temperature since 1958, making the 27°C threshold almost certain to be breached[8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on June 27? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.