Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26?

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Market context

The underlying event is the actual highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 26 June 2026, which will determine the market resolution. Current data shows a maximum daytime temperature of 29°C for Incheon today, with a minimum of 21°C, while aviation records indicate a day maximum of 25.6°C at 10:00 KST[1][3]. The crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specific range being bet on, likely due to the high observed maximums.

Historically, late June in Incheon typically sees temperatures between 24°C and 30°C, with 2026 following this pattern closely. Comparable cases from recent years show that temperatures exceeding 28°C are common during this period, making a 0% probability for a lower range plausible if the bet targets a cooler threshold[4][5]. The current form aligns with these historical averages, reinforcing the market’s low confidence in a lower temperature outcome.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground and the National Weather Service for any sudden shifts, as cloud cover or wind changes could alter the peak temperature[2][6]. Recent aviation reports confirm clear skies and stable conditions, but any unexpected precipitation or frontal movement could impact the day’s maximum. No major weather announcements have been issued yet, but continuous monitoring of the RKSI station data is essential as the settlement window approaches[3][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.