Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

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Market context

Seoul on 25 June 2026 falls at the cusp of early summer and the monsoon season, when daytime highs typically reach 28°C but humidity can push real-feel temperatures above 35°C. The market’s 0% YES probability implies traders expect the Incheon Intl Airport Station to record a temperature below the lowest range in the resolution table, yet historical data shows June highs in Seoul rarely dip below 19°C, with averages near 28°C[1][9].

Comparable cases from recent years confirm that late June in Seoul often sees hotter, more humid conditions than early June, with temperatures climbing toward 30°C as the monsoon approaches[2]. AccuWeather’s forecast for June 2026 lists daily highs between 78° and 91°F (26°–33°C), with an average high of 88°F (31°C)[4], making a sub-19°C reading highly improbable unless an extreme cold anomaly occurs.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for 24–25 June, particularly any sudden shifts in cloud cover or rain intensity that could suppress daytime heating[5]. A recent KBS report from 25 June 2026 noted heavy afternoon showers and a midday high of only 27°C, suggesting rain could temporarily lower temperatures, though sustained cooling below 19°C remains unlikely without a major weather disruption[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.