Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul experiences peak summer heat in late July, with the monsoon season (jangma) typically concluding by late June. Historical records from Incheon International Airport show that temperatures in the final week of July regularly exceed 30°C, with daily highs frequently reaching 32–35°C during clear, high-pressure systems. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool spell or uncertainty about the settlement mechanics rather than genuine climatic expectation.

Comparable July 28th readings from prior years at Incheon provide the clearest benchmark. The airport station has recorded highs of 33–34°C on this date in recent decades, with extreme outliers reaching 36°C during particularly intense heat waves. The absence of any trading activity at non-zero odds indicates either low market liquidity or consensus that standard summer conditions will prevail, making the current odds potentially misaligned with seasonal norms.

Traders should monitor the East Asian weather pattern in early July 2026, particularly the position and strength of the North Pacific high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity that could alter atmospheric circulation. The Korea Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts, typically issued 10–14 days ahead, will provide the most reliable signal for whether conditions favour above or below-average temperatures. Any significant weather system tracking towards the Korean peninsula in the week prior to July 28th could shift probabilities materially.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.