Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is entering its peak summer heatwave period, with the Incheon International Airport station expected to record its daily maximum temperature under humid, monsoon-influenced conditions. Historical data shows July highs in Seoul typically reach 28°C, though extreme days can push significantly higher due to the city’s urban heat island effect and high relative humidity averaging 80%[1]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific high-temperature range suggests traders are either uncertain about the exact threshold or believe the market has mispriced the likelihood of a record-breaking day.

Comparable cases from recent years show Seoul experiencing temperatures between 30°C and 35°C on late July days, with the highest recorded July temperature in the past decade reaching 39.1°C in 2018. These outliers were driven by prolonged anticyclonic systems and minimal rainfall, contrasting with the 43% average daily rain chance in July[1]. Traders should monitor Wunderground’s real-time updates for the Incheon station as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 21 July 2026, watching for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation that could suppress the peak temperature. No major weather announcements have been issued yet, but the lack of recent extreme heat warnings may indicate a lower-than-usual risk of a record high this year.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.