Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s highest temperature on 16 July 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport, with the market currently pricing any outcome above 26°C as virtually impossible despite July being the capital’s hottest month. Historical data shows daytime maximums in Seoul typically reach 28°C, while early mornings sit around 18–20°C, and humidity often makes afternoons feel significantly warmer [3][5]. The crowd-implied 0% probability for a “YES” outcome likely reflects a misalignment with the market’s actual resolution structure, which focuses on specific temperature ranges rather than a binary threshold, as traders are heavily favouring 29°C (39%) and 30°C (35%) as the most probable outcomes [1].

Recent extremes underscore the volatility of early July weather in the region, with Seoul recording a record 37.7°C on 8 July 2025—the hottest day in 117 years for that period [2]. This precedent suggests that dismissing temperatures above 31°C may be overly cautious, given the potential for sudden heat spikes driven by humidity and urban heat effects. Traders should monitor daily Wunderground updates for the Incheon station as the settlement window closes, particularly any sudden shifts in forecast models or official weather agency announcements that could signal an approaching heatwave. The resolution hinges entirely on the highest temperature recorded for all times on 16 July, making real-time data from the official source critical for accurate positioning [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.