Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is bracing for extreme heat as July 13, 2026, arrives with conditions echoing the city’s most intense early-July spikes in over a century. Recent records show Seoul hitting 37.8°C in early July, the hottest such reading in 117 years, while the nation recently endured 22 consecutive “tropical nights” with overnight temperatures above 25°C, a century-long record [1][2]. Historical July highs in Seoul typically range between 29°C and 35°C, rarely exceeding 36°C, though Hongcheon recently set an all-time national peak of 41.0°C, indicating the region’s growing heat volatility [4][5].

Traders should monitor real-time data from Wunderground for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, the designated resolution source, as cloud cover and wind patterns can sharply alter peak temperatures on the day. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 13 July, any sudden shift in forecast models or official heat advisories from the Korea Meteorological Administration could act as a catalyst [2]. Given the current 0% crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome, the market appears to expect temperatures below the threshold, but recent anomalies suggest this may underestimate the risk of a record-breaking spike.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.