Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces a critical heat test as traders assess whether the Incheon International Airport station will record a temperature high enough to resolve the market, despite the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome exceeding the lowest threshold. Historical data shows July in Seoul typically sees daily highs climbing from 81°F to 85°F (27°C to 29°C), rarely exceeding 91°F (33°C), yet recent anomalies have shattered expectations. In early July 2023, Seoul hit 37.8°C, the hottest early July reading in 117 years, while South Korea’s all-time record of 41.0°C was set in Hongcheon, indicating the region’s capacity for extreme spikes [1][2][5].

The zero percent implied probability suggests the market expects conditions to remain within the lowest bracket, but this ignores the accelerating trend of record-breaking summer heat in the region. South Korea experienced its second-hottest July since 1973 in 2025, with an average of 27.1°C, and forecast models for July 2026 project daily highs potentially reaching 99°F (37°C) [4][6]. Traders must monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Incheon station specifically, as the settlement depends entirely on the highest temperature recorded at that location by 12:00 UTC on 11 July 2026. Any sudden shift in cloud cover or wind patterns could trigger a rapid repricing if temperatures approach the 33°C threshold, which remains statistically plausible given the warming baseline [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.