Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s heat on 4 August is being driven by a broad heatwave rather than a one-off spike, with local forecasts calling for highs around 38°C in the capital and 37°C in Incheon, and an official severe heat warning due from 11:00 am. That keeps the market’s 0% YES price hard to reconcile with the current weather setup: the day’s thermal ceiling is already forecast near the upper end of the seasonal range, and Incheon Airport is close enough to the Seoul metropolitan core that it is likely to share much of the same hot air mass. [1][3][4]

Historically, early August sits near the hottest stretch of the year in Seoul, with long-run August averages around the high 20s Celsius and published climatology showing record or near-record daily highs in the high 30s. WeatherSpark notes that 4 August is typically among the hottest days of the year in Seoul, while Holiday Weather lists an August record high of 38.2°C, which makes a high-30s outcome plausible in an extreme set-up even if the airport reading finishes a little below central Seoul. [14][16][19]

What matters for traders today is the timing of the peak and whether cloud, showers, or coastal onshore flow cap the afternoon maximum before the settlement window closes. Forecasts mention scattered showers developing later in the day in western areas, but also say the rain will not materially ease the heat; if that timing slips earlier, it could trim the top-end reading at Incheon Airport, while a dry, bright afternoon would leave the hotter guidance intact. [1][3][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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