Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 21 August 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved via Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. August represents peak summer in South Korea, when the Korean peninsula experiences intense heat and humidity from the North Pacific high-pressure system. Historical August maxima at Incheon typically range between 28–32°C, though extreme heat events can push readings above 33°C.

Incheon's August climate has shown measurable variation over recent decades. The 2018 heat wave saw temperatures exceed 34°C across multiple days in the Seoul metropolitan area, whilst cooler Augusts have settled around 27–28°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bracket or expect a notably cool August relative to recent norms. Weather patterns two years ahead remain inherently unpredictable; seasonal forecasts typically gain reliability only 2–4 weeks before the target date.

Traders monitoring this market should track long-range climate outlooks released by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) in July 2026, which will provide the most actionable guidance on whether August conditions favour above-average or below-average heat. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through 2025–2026 could influence Pacific pressure systems that drive Korean summer temperatures. The specific resolution methodology—using Daily Observations rather than Day High & Low summaries—requires familiarity with Weather Underground's data hierarchy, as discrepancies between the two tables have occasionally occurred during extreme weather events.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.