Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 20 August 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, the primary source in case of discrepancies with summary figures. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either incomplete pricing or uncertainty about which bracket will ultimately contain the day's peak reading.

August in Seoul typically sees daily highs between 28–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during heat waves. Historical data from comparable mid-August dates at Incheon shows the airport station regularly records temperatures in the 29–31°C band, though extreme heat events have pushed readings to 34–35°C in recent years. The 2018 heat wave saw Seoul exceed 39°C on multiple days in late July and early August, establishing that the region's infrastructure and atmospheric conditions can support sustained high temperatures during summer months.

Traders should monitor weather forecasts released in the week preceding 20 August, particularly from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which issues detailed 10-day outlooks. Pacific typhoon activity in mid-August can suppress temperatures significantly, whilst high-pressure systems from the Tibetan plateau typically drive heat accumulation. The specific resolution mechanism—relying on Incheon's airport station rather than central Seoul—matters; airport locations often record slightly different extremes owing to surface characteristics and exposure. Any tropical system tracking towards the Korean peninsula in early-to-mid August would be the primary catalyst shifting probability distributions downward.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.