Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's Incheon International Airport will record its highest temperature on 19 August 2026, with settlement determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The market resolves to whichever temperature band contains the peak reading logged at the station that day, measured in degrees Celsius.

August in Seoul typically sees peak temperatures between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings into the mid-30s. Historical data from Incheon shows that 19 August has averaged around 29–30°C over the past two decades, with extreme highs occasionally reaching 34–35°C during particularly intense summer patterns. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clarity on the specific temperature bands available or treating this as a straightforward seasonal forecast rather than an outlier event.

The critical variable remains the East Asian summer monsoon pattern and any high-pressure systems that might establish themselves over the Korean Peninsula in mid-August 2026. Traders should monitor meteorological forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international weather models as August approaches, particularly any signals of early autumn cooling or persistent heat dome formation. The distinction between Weather Underground's Daily Observations and Day High & Low sections has material weight here—historical discrepancies between these sources can shift settlement by 0.5–1°C, potentially affecting which band captures the actual daily maximum.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.