Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 15 August 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with resolution determined by that primary source rather than summary figures. The market currently reflects 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either incomplete pricing or expectation of extreme conditions outside historical norms.

August temperatures at Incheon typically peak between 28–32°C, with the airport station recording highs in this band on most mid-August dates over the past two decades. The 15th falls within Seoul's peak summer heat period, when Pacific high-pressure systems and tropical moisture converge over the Korean peninsula. Historical August records at Incheon show extremes reaching 34–35°C during heat waves, though such readings occur in roughly one year per decade. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders may be pricing in either an unusually cool pattern or technical uncertainty around the resolution methodology.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather forecasts released in late July and early August, particularly from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which typically issues 10-day outlooks by early August. Any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during mid-August could suppress temperatures significantly, whilst a stationary high-pressure system would elevate them. El Niño or La Niña conditions heading into northern hemisphere summer can shift regional temperature patterns; current oceanic indices should be tracked through spring and early summer 2026. The specific reliance on Daily Observations data rather than summary highs means traders should verify Wunderground's station recording protocols, as sensor maintenance or data gaps could affect settlement.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.