Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 14 August 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement occurring at midday UTC on that date. The market currently reflects zero probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either incomplete pricing or expectation of data unavailability at settlement.

August temperatures in Seoul typically peak between 28–32°C, with extreme heat events occasionally pushing above 35°C. Historical records show that mid-August sits near the tail end of Korea's summer monsoon season, when afternoon highs regularly exceed 30°C but sustained heat waves are less common than in late July. The 0% crowd probability across all ranges is anomalous given Seoul's consistent August warmth and suggests traders may be uncertain about data accessibility or resolution mechanics rather than doubting that some temperature will be recorded.

The critical dependency is Weather Underground's operational status and data publication on 14 August 2026. Traders should monitor whether Wunderground maintains its Daily Observations table format and whether Incheon Airport Station continues reporting without interruption. Typhoon activity, whilst possible in mid-August, would not prevent temperature recording—it would simply alter the likely range. Any scheduled maintenance at the weather station or changes to Wunderground's data architecture between now and August 2026 could affect settlement certainty, making this market's viability contingent on infrastructure stability rather than meteorological uncertainty.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.